中文摘要：

为预防和控制高风险、高花费的工程变更雪崩传播，减小产品开发Hub节点间的相互影响，提出一种基于矩阵和产品开发Hub节点的雪崩传播预测方法。介绍了作为基础的设计结构矩阵、设计依赖矩阵模型和Hub节点的获取方法；根据设计结构矩阵的聚类结果，以Hub节点为核心构建了设计依赖矩阵；针对该矩阵提出了依赖分析算法，得到了预测雪崩传播的重要矩阵模型——联系依赖矩阵；以联系依赖矩阵为基础，以预测影响范围为媒介，计算传播过程中被影响的Hub节点数目，以此作为判断雪崩传播是否发生的依据，并提出了预防和控制雪崩传播的方法。以某型号摩托车发动机为例说明了所提方法的应用及其合理性。

英文摘要：

In order to forecast and control avalanche propagation in engineering change that is high-risk and highcost, a method based on matrix and Hub nodes of product development network was proposed. As the basic of the method, Design Structure Matrix, Design Dependency Matrix and the way obtaining Hub nodes were introduced; then, the method of establishing design dependency matrix and its dependency algorithm was proposed; based on the dependency matrix of DDM, as the characterization of avalanche propagation, the method of calculating affecting number of Hub nodes was analyzed; finally, the experiment of managing a type of motorcycle engine was employed to validate our method and it showed the correctness of the proposed method.