在筛选出34个评价指标的基础上,采用模糊识别理论构建2级平潭岛生态安全评价模型,第1层次运用层次分析法(AHP)确定权重,第2层次运用熵权法与灰色关联法的组合权重作为评价指标的权重,比较客观地展示了指标相对重要程度。通过计算发现平潭岛生态安全状态呈现不断上升趋势,2010年之前处在一般与较好之间,2010年之后达到较好与好之间,预测其未来10 a生态环境将不断提高。从单因综合贡献指数进行的驱动力分析结果可以发现,2008年之前,状态因子与影响因子是其生态环境状态的主要驱动力,而2010年之后响应因子变为主要的驱动力。
On the basis of 34 evaluation indices screened out,two-level ecological security evaluation model of Pingtan Island was set according to fuzzy recognition theory.At the first level analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was applied to determine the weight.At the second level combined weights of entropy method and gray correlation method were employed as the evaluation index weights.Thus the relative importance of the indicators was revealed objectively.By calculating the ecological security level of Pingtan Island was proved to be on the rise.The level was at between middle and good before 2010,and reached at a better level after 2010.Its ecological environment would continue to be improved in the next 10 years according to the prediction.Single factor comprehensive contribution indices were offered to conduct driving force analysis,and the results could be found that prior to 2008 the state factors and impact factors were the main driving force of the ecological environment conditions.However,after 2010,response factors turn to be the main driving force.