中文摘要：

如何评价分析信息安全技术已成为当前的研究热点．本文基于攻防博弈模型对由防火墙、入侵检测系统构成的安全体系进行了分析，求出了阶段博弈模型的混合策略纳什均衡解．在阶段博弈分析的基础上，引入重复博弈的概念对模型进行了多阶段的动态博弈分析．研究表明，信息安全技术配置直接影响攻防双方的行为变化，贴现因子与入侵概率存在密切关系，从防御方的角度看，入侵概率的准确预测对其策略的选择具有重要影响．因此，作为防御方应积极记录、分析和量化攻击的方式、目标、数量及类型，进而优化配置，这将有效提高应用信息安全技术的效用．

英文摘要：

How to value the information security technologies is an important research issue recently. Based on game theory the evalu- ation model for information security technologies including firewall and intrusion detection system is proposed, and mixed strategy Nash equilibria of stage game is analyzed. Furthermore, the model analysis by repeated multi-stage dynamic game is presented. The results show that the configuration of the information security technologies impact behavior of both attacker and defender directly. Dis- count factor is closely associated with invasion probability. It is important for defender＇s selection about defend strategy to forecast in- vasion probability accurately. Therefore, the defender should record, analyze and quantify the attack, target, quantity and type active- ly. Then the utility is improved by optimizing configuration for information security technologies effectively.