中文摘要：

在东亚上把模拟基于一个高分辨率的地区性的气候模型(RegCM3 ) ，在在在气候变化(IPCC ) 专辑上的 Intergovernmental 面板下面的第 21 世纪的 Miyun 水库上的未来气候变化在排出物情形(SRES ) A1B 上报导情形被分析。模型模拟在 25 km 的格子间距从 1951 ～ 2100 延长并且是单程的在 MIROC3.2_ 的一个全球模型以内嵌套雇用(为关于气候的学科交差的研究的模型) 。分析的焦点在 Miyun 水库的分水岭上，为在北中国的北京的主要的水供应。结果证明 RegCM3 复制观察温度很好，但是它在这个区域上过高估计降水。在第 21 世纪的重要温暖在年度平均数， December-January-February (DJF ) 和 June-July-August (JJA ) 被模仿，尽管与有关空间分发和大小的差别。在为年度平均数， DJF，和 JJA 的降水的变化也显示出差别。在 DJF 和在 JJA 的它的减少的降水的占优势的增加在这个区域上被投射，当在年度平均数的小变化被投射时。降水和土壤水分蒸发蒸腾损失总量之间的差别的变化也在论文被介绍测量潜在的水可获得性。

英文摘要：

Based on a high-resolution regional climate model （RegCM3） simulation over East Asia, future climate changes over the Miyun Reservoir in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B scenario are analyzed. The model simulation extends from 1951 to 2100 at a grid spacing of 25 km and is one-way nested within a global model of MIROC3.2_ hires （the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate）. The focus of the analysis is on the Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, the main water supply for Beijing in northern China. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed temperature well but it overestimates precipitation over the region. Significant warming in the 21st century is simulated in the annual mean, December-January-February （DJF） and June-July-August （JJA）, although with differences concerning the spatial distribution and magnitude. Changes in precipitation for the annual mean, DJF, and JJA also show differences. A prevailing increase of precipitation in DJF and a decrease of it in JJA is projected over the region, while little change in the annual mean is projected. Changes of the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration to measure the potential water availability are also presented in the paper.