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中文摘要：
为优化瀑布沟水库汛期调度方式，提高水资源利用率，对瀑布沟汛期洪水与环流形势的关系进行了分析，数理统计、变点分析等方法分析表明，瀑布沟汛期洪水存在较为明显的主汛与后汛之分，分期时间在8月20日左右。分析结果为瀑布沟水库分析分期设计洪水、汛限水位动态控制等提供了良好的技术支持，经济和社会效益显著。
英文摘要：
For optimizing the flood season scheduling way of Pubugou Reservoir and improving the utilization of water resources, the relations of flood and atmospheric circulation are analyzed. The results of statistical analysis and change-point detection show that the flood at Pubugou Reservoir has a clear difference between main flood season and later flood season which divided by the time of August 20. The study can provide a good technical support to the estimation of seasonal design flood and the dynamic control of flood level at Pubugou Reservoir. The study also has significant economic and social benefits.
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