利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国大气科学研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)的逐日再分析资料,评估了耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(The fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,简称CMIP5)17个气候模式对于20世纪北半球夏季气候态阻塞频数和振幅的模拟能力,从线性趋势和年际变化2方面评估了欧亚3个关键区(欧洲区、乌拉尔山区和鄂霍次克海区)夏季阻塞频数的模拟能力.结果表明:(1)尽管模式对北半球夏季阻塞频数和振幅的模拟结果存在偏差,但大部分模式可以很好模拟出气候态特征,模式对频数的模拟结果略优于振幅;无论频数或者振幅,CanESM2均为17个气候模式中模拟效果最好的,CMCC-CESM和MIROC-ESM为模拟效果最差的,多模式集成的结果优于大部分单一模式.(2)大多数模式可以较好的模拟出欧亚3个关键区夏季平均阻塞频数和标准差,但对阻塞频数线性趋势和年际变化特征的模拟能力有限.
Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) gridded reanalysis data during 1951-2005 and model outputs from 20th Century Climate Simulation experiment by 17 coupled models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the capabilities of the climate models in simulating summer Northern Hemisphere blocking have been evaluated. In addition, the abilities of the models to simulate the linear tendency and interannual variability of summer frequency in the three key regions of Eurasia (Euro region, Ural Mountain region and Okhotsk region) are evaluated. Results show that : (1) Despite bias exists in 17 model results, the basic spatial patterns of the climatology of frequency and amplitude are well simulated. On the whole, the simulation of frequency is better than that of amplitude and the multimodel-ensemble (MME) shows better skill than most of single model. For both frequency and amplitude, CanESM2 is best and CMCC-CESM and MIROC-ESM are worst. (2) Most models can basically reproduce the climatology frequency and standard deviation in the three key regions of Eurasia, however, they fail to capture the linear tendency and interannual variability.