中文摘要：

通货膨胀持久性对货币政策的制定和实施具有重要作用.本文基于1994-2012年的季度数据,运用状态空间模型研究我国通货膨胀持久性的时变特征,发现在样本期内通货膨胀的持久性总体呈先上升后下降的趋势,绝大部分时间通货膨胀持久性较高.利用货币政策框架进行抑制通货膨胀的政策模拟发现,当存在通货膨胀持久性时,会削弱旨在抑制通货膨胀的货币政策效果,不仅时滞会变长,而且会付出较大的产出代价.因此,央行在制定相关政策时,应在稳定产出与控制通货膨胀之间赋予控制通货膨胀更高的权重.

英文摘要：

Inflation persistence plays an important role for monetary policy design. Based on quarterly data of 1994 - 2012, this paper uses state-space model to investigate the changes of China＇ s inflation persistence. We found that China＇ s inflation persistence showed an increased and then decreased trend. During most of the sample period, China＇ s inflation persistence was high. Then, this paper uses a monetary policy framework to simulate the anti-inflationary policy. According to the policy simulation, we found that ： when the inflation persistence exists, the effects of anti-inflationary monetary policy are weakened and the policy delay is longer. What＇ s more, there is a large output cost. Lastly, this paper gives some policy suggestions based on the conclusions, such as central bank should give more weight on control inflation between stabilize output and control inflation.