中文摘要：

本文根据广东省统计年鉴，计算出1990-2011年碳排放量，结合经济发展水平、能源结构和产业结构，分析广东省碳排放动态演进过程，并通过LMDI因素分解模型，分析出经济发展、能源强度和碳排放强度的贡献度和贡献率。研究表明：广东省碳排放量与经济发展水平高度相关，高碳能源结构和产业结构将使得碳排放量保持增长态势；经济发展因素推动碳排放增长，能源强度和碳排放强度抑制碳排放增长；

英文摘要：

According Statistical Yearbook Guangdong Province, calculate carbon emissions from 1990 to 2011. Combing the level of eeonomie development, energy and industrial structures, analysis Guangdong Province dynamic evolution of carbon emissions. The paper get contribntion and contribution rate of the economic development, energy intensity and carbon intensity by LMDI factors decomposition model. The result shows that： There was a high liner correlation between econic growth and carbon emission, high-carbon energy structure and industrial structure will allow carbon emissions to maintain growth momentum. Economic development factors promotes the growth of carbon emissions. Energy intensity and carbon intensity inhibits the growth of carbon emissions.