中文摘要：

在改进灰色多层次评价方法的基础上,建立了应急预案实施效果评价模型,并辅以算例对模型进行了验证.改进主要体现在：一是引入专家权重,对AHP群决策中不同专家确定的指标权重进行加权修正;二是构建了基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权法计算指标权重,避免了传统AHP过于依赖专家的不足;三是在综合评价的基础上,提出计算评价对象单项指标得分的方法.改进后的方法更加严谨,方法体系本身更加完善.根据模型计算结果,可以有针对性地对应急预案进行改进,提升其实施效果.

英文摘要：

The paper built an evaluation model for plan implementation based on improved multi-level and grey evaluation method and provided a detailed calculation example to prove its practicability.The improvement mainly reflected in three aspects.Firstly,it corrected indicators weight which were got from AHP group decision method by calculating expert weights.Secondly,it built a combination weighting method based on AHP and entropy weight method to avoid the shortcomings of traditional AHP,namely reliance on experts excessively.Thirdly,it proposed a method to calculate evaluation score for individual indicators.According to the model calculations,it can be targeted to improve contingency plans to enhance its effectiveness.