中文摘要：

在突发事件应急阶段,应急物资调度面临着物资需求量大而且供给不能及时满足需求的困境。在时间优先原则下,当存在多受灾点时,决策方案很难满足每个受灾点的最佳需求。针对上述问题,建立了多阶段的应急物资调度动态决策模型。首先,模型基于博弈论来描述各个受灾点对资源的竞争问题;其次,该模型考虑了前阶段决策给当前决策带来的影响,通过引入惩罚系数来约束该阶段的决策方案给受灾点带来的收益;第三,模型通过使用风险占优机制来解决博弈结果存在多重纳什均衡的问题,从而选择出最佳应急物资调度方案;最后通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性与可行性。

英文摘要：

In the emergency response phase,the inability of meeting the demand timely will trap the decision maker.When there are more than one crisis attacked locations,the decision-making plan could hardly meet the optimal demand of each location under the principle of time priority.This paper establishes a multi-stage dynamic decision-making model of emergency resources scheduling to solve the above-mentioned problem.Firstly,the model describes the problem that every crisis locations compete for the resources based on game theory.Secondly,taking into account the effect of previous stage decision on the current solution,the model restricts the present payoff occurring to each crisis event by introducing the penalty coefficient.Thirdly,the model solves the problem that multiple Nash equilibrium occurs in the game results by risk-dominant mechanism,and then the optimal solution could be obtained.Finally,a numeral case is proposed to prove the validity and feasibility of the model.