中文摘要：

利用1960~2012年长江源区直门达以上流域水文观测数据,采用Mann-Kendall法对径流量数据进行突变检验,并结合径流过程线共同判断突变年份,最终确定2008年为径流量变化的突变年份。以径流突变年份分割时间序列为1960~2008年和2009~2012年,得到累积径流量、累积降水量与年份线性关系式。沱沱河以上降水和非降水因素对径流量增大的贡献率分别为22.89%和77.11%;直门达以上分别为67.85%和32.15%。研究结果显示长江源区近年来径流量呈增加趋势。

英文摘要：

Based on the hydrological data in the source region of the Yangtze River during 1960-2012, the mutation test was made using Mann-Kendall method. The result shows that the mutation point of the runoff is the year 2008. According to the mutation point of the runoff, the time series were divided into the periods of 1960-2008 and 2009-2012, and the relationship between the accumulative runoff,accumulative precipitation and time series were obtained. The contribution rates of precipitation and non-precipitation factors to the increase of runoff are 22.89% and 77.11% in the reach above the Tuotuohe Station. These contribution rates are 67.85% and 32.15% in the reach above the Zhimenda Station. The results of this study shows an increasing trend of the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River.