中文摘要：

政府把新型农村社会养老保险（“新农保”）视为增加农民收入的重要手段，新农保在一定程度上构成了城镇对农村的转移支付，并采取了“现收现付”的给付方式。在此背景下，本文建立了一个包含人口迁移的两部门模型，研究城镇向农村养老保障体系的转移支付对农民收入的影响。分析发现，当进城农民会获得市民身份时，转移支付会降低农民收入。当进城农民无法获得市民身份时，转移支付有可能增加农民收入，利率越低、市民占人口比例越高，转移支付的“增收”（增加农民收入）作用就越大，并且当市民占人口比例低于某个临界值时，转移支付的“增收”作用是负的，即降低农民收入，反之则反是。在“现收现付”的给付方式下，转移支付在短期内有较大的“增收”作用，但代价是长期的“增收”作用下降，甚至可能降为负值。无论政府是对城镇居民还是对城镇产出征税，以上结论都成立。

英文摘要：

This paper studies the effects of transfer payment from the urban sector to rural pension system on ru- ral income, with a two - sector model with rural - urban migration. When immigrants to the urban sector are granted urban status, the effects are negative. Otherwise, the effects are possibly positive, and lower interest rate as well as higher proportion of citizens with urban status implies more positive effects. If the proportion of citizens with urban status is low enough, the effects would be negative, and vice versa. The pay-as-you-go transfer system has strong and positive effects at present, but at the cost of less positive or even negative effects in the future. All conclusions hold whether direct or indirect tax is collected.