大坝蓄水初期监测资料有限且波动性大,坝体结构处于适应变形的危险阶段。基于这种情况,结合灰色理论、神经网络和加权马尔可夫链理论的优点,构建灰色神经网络-加权马尔可夫链的大坝变形监控模型并对某碾压混凝土坝蓄水初期水平位移进行预测。结果表明,该模型解决了样本数据少、波动性大的问题,拟合效果较好,预测精度较高。
The dam monitoring data is limited and the structure adapts to the risk of deformation at the early impoundment stage. In such a situation, by means of the Grey Theory, Neural Networks and Weighted Markov Chain Theory, a Dam Deformation Monito- ring Model based on Gray neural network -- Weighted Markov Chain is built to predict a RCC dam horizontal displacement at the early impoundment stage. Prediction results show that this model solves the problem of fewer data and greater deformation data vola- tility to achieve good fitting and precision.