中文摘要：

风力发电机组根据历史气象观测数据计算确定的多年一遇风速进行设计与选型,若气候模式在其寿命期间发生改变,风速极值分布可能出现明显变化,将对风力机的安全性造成突出影响。为此,选用我国风电开发热点区域5处气象站点近40 a气象观测数据,将其分为前后2段（1973—1992和1993—2012）,利用基于广义Pareto分布的跨阈法分别计算了多年一遇极值风速。分析了长时间尺度下气候变化所致多年一遇极值风速的地域性变化规律及其对风力发电机组安全性的影响。通过前后时段和不同地域多年一遇极值风速的对比,分析发现所调研内蒙和山东站点50 a一遇和1 a一遇最大风速均呈下降趋势,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性有正面影响,而华中地区站点基本持平,长时间尺度上极值风速的变化对风力机安全性无明显影响。

英文摘要：

Wind turbines are designed according to wind extremes of 50-year ＆ 1-year recurrence interval calculated with observed historical wind data. However, changes in the wind extremes can impact safety of wind turbines notably once the climate pattern changes in its life cycle. Consequently, we collected wind data from 1973 to 2012 in 5 sites with pros- perous wind power development. Generalized Pareto distribution was utilized to calculate wind extremes of 50-year ＆ 1-year recurrence interval with wind data from 1973 to 1992 and 1993 to 2012. Moreover, the temporal and spatial varia- tion of wind extremes and its impact on safety of wind turbines were analyzed. It is found that declining in wind extremes over long term scale in investigated sites in Inner Mongolia and Shandong positively affect the safety of wind turbines, while the sites in Central China slightly affect the safety of wind turbines.