中文摘要：

针对现有的IAM在技术进步机制上存在缺陷,本文CIECIA模型中引入广义低碳技术概念,以研发投资驱动过程技术进步速度的方式实现了技术进步的内生化,对世界主要经济体未来的经济发展和碳排放进行预测,并模拟了研发投资率提高对经济和碳排放的影响。结果显示：基准情景下中国、印度等发展中国家由于经济快速发展仍然存在较大的碳排放需求,其中中国在2034年左右达到碳高峰,而已经完成工业化的欧美发达国家经济增长缓慢,其碳排放处于下降趋势。研发投资率的提高可以明显降低各国,尤其是发展中国家的碳排放,使其碳高峰大幅提前。当研发投资率提高到7%以上时大多数国家可实现其INDC目标,并将地表温度控制在2℃以内,而16%的研发投资率可实现2100年1.5℃温控目标。然而,由于各国的研发能力有限,短期内研发投资率很难大幅上升,因此单纯提高研发投资难以实现全球气候保护目标。从政策设计的角度出发,提高研发投资促进经济发展,适合与其他生产破坏型减排措施组成政策簇,补偿由其他减排措施带来的经济损失,提高减排政策的可行性。

英文摘要：

To overcome the shortcomings of the present IAMs in the aspect of technological progress, this study used an IAM called CIECIA （ Wang et al, 2016）. In this IAM, a broader concept of low - carbon technology was introduced, and the endogenous of tech- nological progress was realized by R＆D driven process technological progress. Based on this model, this study predicted the future global economic growth and carbon emissions, and simulated the impacts of R＆D investments on the economies and carbon emissions of countries. The results indicate that in the baseline, developing countries like China and India with higher growth rates will have large carbon emissions in future. China will meet its carbon peak around 2034. The emissions of developed countries with lower growth rates will continue to decline. Improving of R＆D investing rates can reduce the carbon emissions effectively, especially in developing countries, and the carbon peaks of developing countries will move ahead largely. While the R＆D rates rise up to 7% , most of countries will achieve their INDCs and the global temperature can be controlled under 2℃ , and under 16% R＆D rates the 1.5℃ target can be achieved in 2100. However, the R＆D abilities of countries are limited, and the investing rates cannot be raised sharply in a short time. Thus, the global mitigation target will not be achieved by improving R＆D investments only. From the perspective of policy design, R＆D improvement promotes economic growths, and thus is quite suited to combine with other reduction measures, compensating for the economic loss by the other measures, and improving the feasibility of mitigation policy portfolio.