中文摘要：

在实施京津冀协同发展战略的背景下,将修正的Conley-Ligon模型与空间马尔可夫链分析法相结合,探讨了京津冀县域经济发展过程中的溢出效应空间格局及其对经济水平空间格局演变的影响。研究发现：2000-2013年,京津冀地区的县域间存在显著的空间溢出效应,溢出效应在空间上呈现出与经济发展水平和空间距离紧密相关的具有梯次性特征的核心-外围结构,经济发达的地区发出正向溢出效应的同时也获取了正向溢出效应,但总体上县域溢出效应的类型以负向溢出为主;受溢出效应的空间格局和以负向溢出为主要类型的影响,京津冀县域经济水平类型发生转变的概率较小,经济水平较低的县域难以发生类型的转移,经济水平类型发生转移的县域多分布在地级以上城市市辖区的邻接地带;在邻接县域间显著的空间溢出效应作用下,相邻县域的经济水平类型的转移具有显著的同向性特征。

英文摘要：

Spatial spillover effect reflects the economic activities＇ contacts and interactions between regions, and it is often used to examine regional economic cooperation and the construction of regional integration. Various scholars have paid much attention to the spatial spillover effects and taken some areas as examples by using spatial econometrics model. In such research, however, researchers ignored the spatial heterogeneity and the spatial structure of the spillover effects among the research units. At present, the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become a national strategy. This paper chooses the region as a case to examine the spatial spillover effects at county level by combining the modified Conley-Ligon Model with spatial Markov chain methods. The results display the spatial pattern of spatial spillover effects and reveal its impacts on the transition of economic level types.Several conclusions are as follows. From 2000 to 2013, there are significant spatial spillover effects among counties in Beijing- Tianjin- Hebei region, the spatial spillover effects have the multi- level patterns among cities and the spatial core- periphery structure. Meanwhile, the spillover effect weakens from the central area to the peripheral area with the increase of distance, and the negative spillover effect is in the dominant position. The economically developed counties emit positive spillover effects and gain positive spillover effects at the same time. Ultimately, under the influence of spatial spillover effects, counties＇ economic level types are not likely to change, especially for underdeveloped counties. The counties whose economic level types have changed mostly adjoin the cities＇ built- up areas. The transition of economic level types has the same direction between the adjacent counties. There are some implications of the study： Beijing should play a core role in the coordinated development of Beijing-TianjinHebei region. Space development should ensure the agglomeration economy. T