中文摘要：

土地利用方式的改变对碳排放的影响较大,而建筑用地是影响土地利用碳排放的重要因素,为进一步探索建筑用地变化与碳排放之间的定量关系,采用STIRPAT模型结合多元线性回归法分析了上海市1999—2014年建筑用地变化对碳排放的影响,并对上海市未来碳排放进行预测。结果表明：1999—2014年上海市建筑用地面积与碳排放量均呈增长态势,年均增长率分别为18.04%和5.24%,建筑用地面积与碳排放量之间呈现正的显著相关性,弹性系数为0.013。预测2020年上海市碳排放量将达到6 289.67万t,2015—2020年碳排放量年均增长率仅为0.93%,说明上海市控制建筑用地利用的措施对碳减排有明显效果。

英文摘要：

Land use change has great impact on carbon emissions,and the building land is an important factor affecting carbon emissions from land use. In order to further explore the quantitative relationship between the building land changes and carbon emissions,the changes of building land use and carbon emissions from 1999 to 2014 in Shanghai were analyzed based on the STIRPAT model combined with the multiple linear regression method,and the future carbon emissions of Shanghai were forecasted. The results show： the building land area of Shanghai and carbon emissions from 1999 to 2014 shows a growth trend,and their average annual growth rates are18. 04% and 5. 24% respectively; there is significant positive correlation between the building land area and carbon emissions from buildings,and the elastic coefficient is 0. 013; the carbon emissions of Shanghai in 2020 will reach 62 million 896 thousand and 700 tons,and the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020 is only 0. 93%,which indicates that in recent years,the measures to control building land use in Shanghai have obvious effect on carbon emission reduction.