中文摘要：

以文献资料法与数理统计法为主,本文借助ARIMA模型预测认为以上海市为代表的都市居民在休闲体育等文娱消费上,按目前的趋势发展将具有明显的增长和规模,应从战略层面针对性地选择休闲体育市场需求基点,定位中产阶层人群为休闲体育市场开发的需求主力、青少年人群为体闲体育市场开发的需求牵动力、老年人群为休闲体育市场开发的需求支持力,旨在促进提高体闲体育市场投入资源的利用效率,加快休闲体育市场开发,拉动休闲体育经济发展.因此,上海市在三大休闲体育市场需求基点培育上具备良好条件与前景.

英文摘要：

By the methods of document study and quantitative analysis and using ARIMA model, the paper predicts that Shanghai citizens＇ cultural consumption, including the consumption of leisure sports, will increase significantly according to the present development tendency. Theretbre, We should choose the main demand forces in leisure sports market from the strategic angle. The middle class will be the main demand force in leisure sports market. The young people will be the driving tbrce of the market and the aged people will be the supporting force. Bright future can be seen in maturing those three tbrces for the leisure sports market. We should improve the utilization of the resources put into the leisure sports market, quicken the development of the market and accelerate the development of leisure sports economy.