中文摘要：

巴尔喀什湖是中亚干旱区最大的湖泊生态系统之一,其保护对中亚地区具有重要意义,但同时对相关区域也产生了较大的水资源压力.分析其水量平衡,对提出合理的保障措施具有重要的理论与实践价值.根据巴尔喀什湖形态、水文特征,在分析识别其水量平衡主要影响因素与作用机制的基础上,根据水量平衡原理与东西湖分治的思想,反演了1936-2008年东、西湖的逐年水量平衡系列,分析各平衡要素对湖体水平衡的贡献,探讨湖泊水量对气候变化与人类活动的响应关系及保护水位优化问题.结果表明,入湖径流是控制湖泊水量动态变化的关键因子,东西湖水量收支的不平衡使得东西湖之间水量交换频繁,1936-2008年期间年均交换水量为23.1×108 m3.研究期内的水文变化表明,巴尔喀什湖水量变化对气候变化和人类活动影响具有高度的敏感性,气候变化是湖泊水位动态变化的主导因素,而人类活动是湖泊水量变化的强化因素.实施东西湖分治,能较好地实现巴尔喀什湖湖保护目标,同时缓解河流入湖径流压力,也可有效保障流域经济社会发展用水需求.

英文摘要：

Lake Balkhash is the largest lake ecosystem in Central Asia arid regions,of which the protection is important for Central Asia.However,the protection also brings about a great overwhelming force upon water resources in the relevant regions.Analyzing the water balance and proposing reasonable safety measures have important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper,according to the shape and hydrological characteristics of Lake Balkhash,distinguishing and identifying the major factors which control the water balance and balance mechanisms,water balance series from 1936 to 2008 are worked out for the east and west lakes on the principle of water balance and the divide and conquer idea on the east and west lakes.Afterward,the contributions of these factors to water balance of the lakes are analyzed,and the water storage of the lake responding to climate change and human activities is discussed,as well as how to optimization management.It is found that runoff into the lake is the key factor which controls the dynamics of lake water.Imbalance between east and west lakes results in water exchange between the lakes frequently,with 2.31 km3 of water in average exchanged from 1936 to 2008.It is also found that water storage has high sensitivity to climate change and human activities.Climate change is the dominant factor,and human activities intensify the deficit of water storage.Implementation of the east and west lakes divided and conquered will be better to achieve the objectives of protection of Lake Balkhash and to mitigate the overwhelming force upon the river runoff into the lake,and will effectively guarantee the water demand of the economic and social development in the basin.