中文摘要：

通过对焉耆盆地土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）的时空转化规律的研究,揭示在气候变化和生产活动加剧的背景下,建设用地变化对LUCC的影响及其对工农业土地利用格局、生态环境效应、社会经济状况所产生的驱动机制.结合RS和GIS等技术手段以及马尔可夫模型,对焉耆盆地2010—2015年LUCC特征进行了分析,并对2015—2024年以及终极稳定状态的焉耆盆地LUCC进行了预测.结果显示：在2010—2024研究时段内,建设用地和耕地面积大幅增长,未利用地面积减少量最大;其增长和减少速度在2015—2018年期间达到峰值,而后逐渐降低.未利用地是新增耕地的主要来源,新增建设用地主要来自于耕地转化.水域和沙地面积小幅减少.草地和盐碱地面积变化较小,但两者互转频繁,湿地面积总体保持稳定.由结果可看出,未来焉耆盆地LUCC变化较为剧烈,社会经济发展对自然环境的压力持续增大.

英文摘要：

Based on the study of the spatial-temporal transformation of land exploitation （ LUCC ） in Yanqi Basin, this paper has revealed the impact of the change of the use of land / land cover change on LUCC in the con- text of climate change and intensified production activities, and its impact on land use pattern, ecology environ- mental effects, socio-economic conditions of the driving mechanism.The LUCC features of Yanqi Basin from 2010 to 2015 have been analyzed, and the prediction of LUCC in Yanqi Basin from 2015 to 2024 and in the final state of steady state has been carried out by combining RS and GIS techniques and Markov model.The results show that demand of construction land and cultivated land has increased significantly, and the areas of unused land has de- creased the most; the growth and reduction rate reached the peak in 2015--2018, then decreased gradually.And unused land is the main source of new cultivated land, while cultivated land is the main source of new construc- tion land.Water and sand areas have decreased slightly.Grassland and saline-alkali land areas have changed lit- tle, but the frequency of frequent rotation ,wetland area remains stable.In the future ,the change of LUCC in Yanqi Basin will be intense, and the pressure of social and economic development on the natural environment is increasing.