中文摘要：

This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006.Thestatistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components(PCs).The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa(T850),and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa(H850+T850).For the combined predictors,Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)analysis of the two combined fields is conducted.The modeling results fromHadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station,during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models(GCMs).The results show that(1)the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields,not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming;(2)although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature,the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern Chinadue to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors;(3)when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used,temperature change scenarios have a similar season alvariation to the observed one;and(4)compared with the results of the common EOF analysis,those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

英文摘要：

This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components （PCs）. The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa （T850）, and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa （H850＋T850）. For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models （GCMs）. The results show that （1） the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; （2） although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; （3） when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and （4） compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.