中文摘要：

通过应用系统论和可持续发展的观点和方法，分析了青海湖地区耕地利用变化驱动机制区域差异性。在此基础上，对驱动因子的变化趋势进行了预测，并根据需求理论，对各县耕地利用在驱动力系统的作用下演变趋势加以预测。为青海湖地区土地资源可持续利用规划、社会经济和生态环境的可持续发展等提供抉择依据。表7，参11。

英文摘要：

Based on the analysis of regional differences of driving mechanism of cultivated land use change in Qinghai Lake area according to the system theory and the view of sustainable development, the paper predicted the trend of changes in the driving factors. In terms of the demand theory, it made a further prediction of the evolution tendency of arable land use in each county under the driving forces. The research benefited for the decision-making on the planning of the sustainable use of land resources and the sustainable development of socio-economy and ecological environment in Qinghai lake region.