中文摘要：

公交客流OD矩阵是公交规划和运营管理的基础，公交线路OD矩阵是公交客流OD矩阵的基本单元．本文在传统公交线路OD矩阵估计的基础上，分析了公交乘客出行行为特性、公交出行的马尔科夫链特性以及公交站点间吸引权系数，建立了基于有序加权平均算子的OD矩阵估计模型，同时分析比较了在不同主观决策因素水平下的权重系数以及加权OD矩阵．算例表明，在相应的权重系数确定方法下，综合处理后的结果与传统的估计OD矩阵相比具有更高的精度．

英文摘要：

Public transit OD matrix is the basis of transport network planning and management, while the OD matrix of transit routes is the basic unit of the whole OD matrix. Based on the existed models of estimating transit route OD matrix, the characteristics of the bus passengers＇ behavior, the Markov chain properties of the bus travel and the weight coefficients between the buses stations are analyzed, and a new model for obtai- ning transit route OD matrix is proposed by adopting the ordered weighted averaging operator. The weight coef- ficients and the weighted OD matrix under different levels of subjective decision making factors are also ana- lyzed. Case study shows that the novel estimated OD matrix is more accurate than traditional estimated OD ma- trices under appropriate methods of determining the weights.