中文摘要：

在突发事件应急管理领域,情景研究被定位于一种基础性研究,是应急预案、应急准备等相关研究的基础。通过案例分析与逻辑推理,确定了情景要素的构成,指出应当从灾害体、受灾体和抗灾体三个维度对情景进行表达。提出了图形化的情景表达方法,指出情景表达应当体现出情景要素三个维度要素之间的作用关系以及作用强度。情景的表达是一种动态的表达,会随着时间的推移而动态发展,从而成为决策的依据。在此基础上,研究了情景在空间上的分解以及情景在时间上的演变,探讨了单一事件演变过程中情景间的关系。

英文摘要：

The study of scenario,which is a base of emergency plan and emergency preparing,is located in a basic research in emergency management.By case analysis and logic reasoning,the composition of scenario elements which include three dimensions of disaster system,counter-disaster system,and victims is confirmed.A visualization method of scenario expression is suggested.The expression of scenario needs to determine the key elements of a scenario and analyze the relationships among the elements of a scenario.The disassemble of scenarios in space and the evolution of scenario with time are studied,and the relationship of scenarios is discussed.