中文摘要：

以VaR方法中的历史模拟ARMA预测方法（HSAF）为基本分析方法,以WTI原油现货价格为基本分析变量,衡量了中国石油企业在进行海外并购时面临的价格风险。研究结论表明,在97.6%的置信水平下,预测期内的VaR预测值比实际值要大得多,并且大多数情况下预测值是实际值的1~2倍。最后,对降低中国石油企业跨国并购市场风险提出了若干建议。

英文摘要：

This papers analyses the Market Risk Chinese oil companies facing in overseas merger and acquisition（M A）by using Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting（HSAF） as the basic analysis method and the spot price of WTI crude oil as the basic analysis variables.It makes the conclusions that the VaR predictive value is much greater than the actual value under the confidence level of 97.6 percent and,at the most time,the predictive value is 1-2 times than the actual value.This shows that China＇s oil companies are facing with a great deal of risk when carrying out overseas mergers and acquisitions.Finally,it discusses the avoidance way from strengthening market risk assessment in host country,reducing the interest rate and exchange rate risks,carefully determining the types of mergers and acquisitions,establishing overseas strategic alliances and strategically selecting the MA region.