中文摘要：

研究汇率对出口的影响具有重要的理论价值与实践意义．本文以储蓄投资结构失衡情况与出口周期为条件，引入多机制平滑转换回归模型（MRSTR），从一个全新的视角测算和分析汇率对出口的非对称调节作用．研究结果表明：1）在结构性失衡程度严重的情形下，汇率对我国出口的调节作用较弱．伴随结构性失衡得到改善，汇率对我国出口的调节作用增强；2）结构性失衡严重时，出口周期的波动对汇率调节出口的作用影响不是很大，结构性失衡程度较低时，出口周期处于景气阶段时汇率对出口的调节作用显著大于出口不景气阶段．

英文摘要：

The research on impact of the exchange rate on China＇s export is significantly important both theoretically and practically. Considering the internal imbalance and the export cycle as two conditions, this paper investigated the asymmetric impact of the exchange rate on China＇s export from a new perspective based on multiple regime smooth transition regression models （MRSTR）. The main results show that： 1） There is less impact of the exchange rate on China＇s export when the degree of internal imbalance is serious, while the power of impact increases with an improvement of internal imbalance; 2） The fluctuation of export cycle does not significantly affect the impact of the exchange rate on China＇s export if the degree of internal imbalance is serious, but the impact of the exchange rate on China＇s export is significantly increased in the export boom phase than that in the export bust phase when the degree of internal imbalance is low.