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中文摘要：
依据流域灾害系统理论，在综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体的基础上选取10个评价指标，构建了基于随机森林（RF）智能算法的洪灾风险评价模型，借助GIS技术以100m×100m栅格为计算单元，对东江流域进行了评价。结果表明：该模型设置参数少，且无需设定指标权重和分级标准，实现过程较简单；RF模型拥有指标重要性评估功能，方便分析各评价指标对洪灾风险的贡献度；模型的评判精度、分级结果均比支持向量机（SVM）的结果更好，数据挖掘能力更强；与GIS技术结合，便于分析洪灾风险的空间格局及内在规律，具有较好的适用性，为流域洪灾风险评价提供了新的思路。
英文摘要：
According to disaster system theory, 10 indexes are selected with an overall consideration of disas- ter-inducing factor, the hazard inducing environment and the hazard bearing body. An assessment model of flood risk is constructed based on an intelligent algorithm called Random Forest （RF）. Taking a grid of 100 m×100 m as the computing element, the flood risk in Dongjiang River basin is evaluated by the model with the help of GIS technique. The evaluation results show that： the RF model has fewer parameters and dis- penses with consideration of index weight and grading standard, making the implementation simpler. It can evaluate the index importance, which maks it convenient to analyze the contribution of each index to flood risk. It achieves higher accuracy, better classification result and stronger data mining ability than the SVM model. It is easy to integrate the GIS technique so that it can conveniently analyze the spatial pattern and inherent law of the risk. Therefore, the assessment model based on RF achieves good results and it can be a new way to flood risk assessment.
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