中文摘要：

利用长江流域107个站1958～2002年逐年夏季降水量资料，对长江流域夏季降水的区域特征及演变规律进行诊断分析。结果表明，长江流域夏季降水主要有3种空间振荡型、7个降水变化敏感区域。其中长江三角洲、鄱阳湖平原、湘江-赣江上游区域夏季降水呈显著的增加趋势，增加率分别为25．8mm／10a、69．4mm／10a、31．0mm／10a，信度水平在95％以上；岷江流域则呈显著的减少趋势，减少率为40．7mm／10a，信度水平在99％以上；岷江流域和汉水-长江三峡在1980年代降水最多，而其它区域在1990年代降水最多。夏季降水量江汉-洞庭湖平原在1985年、鄱阳湖平原在1994年、长江三角洲和汉水-长江三峡在1974年发生了由少到多的突变，而岷江流域则在1963年发生由多到少的突变；各个区域都存在明显的年际或年代际振荡周期。

英文摘要：

The regional characteristics and variable trends of summer precipitation were diagnosed and analyzed in Yangtze river catchment, based on every summer precipitation data of 107 stations from 1958 to 2002. The result show, there are 3 main spatial oscillation patterns and 7 sensitive centers of precipitation change. The summer precipitation is noted increased above 95% confidential level in the centers of Yangtze Delta, Poyanghu plain and the upper Xiang-Han river area; which increasing rates are 25.8 mm/10a, 69.4 mm/10a and 31.0 mm/10a. But the summer precipitation is noted decreased at 99% confidential level in Min river catchment, which decreasing rate is 40.7 mm/10a. The summer precipitation is most in 1980s only in centers of Min river catchment and Hanshui-Yangtze three gorges, but most in 1990s in the other centers. The summer precipitation had declined abrupt change in 1990s in Poyanghu plain, in 1985 in Jianghan-Dongtinghu plain and in 1979 boat in Yangtze Delta and in Hanshui-Yangtzer three gogres, but increased abrupt change in 1963 in Min fiver catchment. All sensitive centers of precipitation change have obviously interannual and interdecadal oscillation periods.