运用空间统计分析方法,以增长极理论为分析框架,探索长三角地区城市关联的时空分布特征,以期揭示区域城市间的扩散回波效应作用机制.研究结果表明:长三角地区城市关联的总体水平提高,由上海、南京和杭州等中心城市规模经济带来的扩散效应,促进了区域中部城市的崛起,城市发展出现由中心向外围转移的趋势;市场经济的回波效应促使无锡、徐州等城市演变为新兴经济增长城市,中西部地区的中小城市发展迅速.随着城市时空关联程度的提高,长三角地区城市发展两极化现象却愈演愈烈.在中心城市扩散效应作用下,长三角地区城市化进程不断加快,城市关联程度日益增强,而回波效应却使得城市间两极分化现象加剧.
This paper applies the spatial statistical analysis to explore the spatio-temporal distributions of urban associations and to analyze the characteristics and mechanism of these patterns in the Yangtze River Delta Region with the growth pole theory. The results show that,on the one hand,the whole levels of urban associations have significantly increased in the Yangtze River Delta Region during the study period. The "spread effects"brought by scale economies in the central cities of Shanghai,Naning and Hangzhou have promoted the growth of cities in central area. Meanwhile,the tendency of city development has spreaded out from the center to the periphery since the reform and opening up in 1979. On the other hand,the"backwash effects"from the market economy has assisted to make Wuxi,Xuzhou and other cities become new economic growth cities and to make the middle and small cities in the central and western regions develop rapidly. It is worth saying that the phenomenon of cities' polarization in the Yangtze River Delta Region occur with the improvement of urban associations in recent years. In a word,the urbanization process is accelerated and urban association is increasingly strengthened under the "spread effects"of central city,while the phenomenon of cities' polarization will continue to enhance under the "backwash effects"in the Yangtze River Delta Region.