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中文摘要：
基于非线性门限向量自回归(TAR)模型,运用1978~2013年的相关数据,研究中国信贷政策对产业结构的影响效应。实证表明,信贷政策对产业结构调整的影响存在显著的门限效应,表现为:在以金融机构各项贷款余额作为分界点的不同政策区制间,信贷政策对产业结构变动的影响存在很大差异。金融机构各项贷款余额的不断增加,对第一、第二产业产值比重增加的影响始终为正,但程度不同。当其增加到一定水平时,对第三产业产值比重增加的影响才由负转正,但明显弱于第一、第二产业。从这个方面看,中国信贷政策在扶持中小企业、发展第三产业,促进中国产业结构调整升级方面的作用还有待加强。
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