中文摘要：

科学评价在一定系统条件下的风电有效投资规模,对风电的可持续发展具有重要意义。考虑风电的波动性和随机性特征,在长期市场均衡模型的基础上,构建风电有效投资容量的分析模型。在此基础上,根据美国PJM市场的数据,在IEEE 30节点系统中对风电有效投资规模进行模拟计算,对风电的主要影响因素进行敏感性分析,结果表明,风电容量成本、市场需求水平、快速调峰能力和电网输送容量等是风电发展的关键因素。结合我国风电发展的实际,提出风电优化规划的政策建议和意见。

英文摘要：

The scientific evaluation of effective investment scale for wind power in certain system conditions is important for its sustainable development. An analytical model of effective wind power investment capacity is built based on the long-term market equilibrium model,which considers the volatility and randomness of wind power,a simulative calculation of effective wind power investment scale is carried out for IEEE 30-bus system based on the data of American PJM market,and the sensitiveness of main influencing factors is analyzed. Results show that,the wind power capacity cost,market demand level,fast peak regulation capability and grid transmission capacity are the key factors of wind power development.Suggestions are put forward for the optimal planning of China ＇s wind power.