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中文摘要：
运用随机网络理论，构建了区域产业集群形成与发展的GERTN络模型，提出了区域产业集群形成与发展的“夭折”概率与“成熟”概率两个概念。并以高科技产业集群为例求解。在此基础上，研究政府在产业集群的不同阶段给予支持时．各种方案对产业集群形成与发展的作用效果。产业集群“成熟”概率的变化，说明了政府在产业集群发展的初期给予支持是最优的选择，进而说明了政府对产业集群支持的必要性以及支持方案的选择效果。
英文摘要：
In this paper, by using Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique （GERT）, a GERT network model is built up to describe the process of formation and development of regional industry cluster. Two concepts, that is, the possibility of ＂collapse＂ and that of ＂maturity＂ of the development of regional industrial cluster, which also set high-tech industrial cluster as an example for solving problems, are bought out in this paper. Then based on the model, the concepts of probability of being premature and probability of mature are proposed. Moreover probability of mature are discussed when support from government are provided at different stages of industry cluster. The conclusions account for the necessary and affection of government support.
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