中文摘要：

水库动态汛限水位控制调度是水库管理调度的重要方式之一，它可以提高水库的兴利效益。本文通过分析水库动态汛限水位控制调度可能产生的后果，给出了水库动态汛限水位控制调度风险的定义，并建立了考虑洪水预报误差情况下的入库径流的随机模拟方法。通过大清河流域水库实际应用表明：洪水预报误差可能对水库动态汛限水位控制调度的风险产生一定的影响，其影响程度主要都取决于洪水预报的精度情况。在大清河流域，其洪水预报系统的洪水预报误差对各水库动态水位控制调度的影响都是很小的。但各水库汛限水位的提高程度如果超过1m时，对白洋淀的防洪压力会很大。

英文摘要：

Dynamic flood control operation is one of important ways of reservoir operation and management which can improve reservoir benefit. All the possible results of operation are analyzed with dynamic flood control levels and define the operation risk. The runoff random simulation method is established with considering the flood forecasting error. The method is appled for reservoir of Daqinghe basin. Results show that the flood forecasting error affects the operation risk of dynamic flood control to some extent and the extent depends on the flood forecasting precision. In Daqinghe basin, the extent is very limited. If all flood control levels of reservoirs in Daqinghe basin are heightened by 1 meter, flood control pressure of Baiyangdian will be great.