中文摘要：

利用汾河水库1956-2004年入库径流和降雨量资料,在采用统计学方法探讨径流和降雨变异分析的基础上,建立双累积曲线模型,分离出了降水变化和水土保持措施分别引起的径流变化量,在定义贡献率的基础上,分析水土保持措施和气候变化对径流演变的贡献。结果表明,1956-2004年49年来汾河水库入库径流和降雨均呈减少的趋势,但径流减少趋势明显;以入库径流突变年份为界将研究时段分为2段（1956-1982年和1983-2004年）;水土保持措施的实施致使径流减少24.8mm,贡献率为87.1%,降雨减少致使入库径流减少3.7mm,贡献率为12.9%。流域内从20世纪80年代初开始的水土保持措施实施改变了水库上游流域的水文循环过程。

英文摘要：

This study separated the effects of climate change and soil and water conservation on reservoir inflow in the Fenhe reservoir using runoff and precipitation data during 1956-2004 by building double mass curve model based on using statistical methods.Contribution of soil and water conservation and climate change to runoff variation were analyzed based on defining the conception of contribution rate.The results showed that reservoir inflow and precipitation tended to become lower for the period,but reservoir inflow tended lower obviously.The whole study period could be divided into two sub-periods（1956-1982 and 1983-2004） by the year when reservoir inflow under went abrupt change.Reduced reservoir inflow was 24.8 mm by soil and water conservation,the contribution rate was 87.1%,and reduced inflow was 3.7 mm by precipitation reducing,the contribution rate was 12.9%.Hydrology cycle processes of the reservoir upper reaches were changed by carrying out soil and water conservation and climate change since the early 1980s.