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中文摘要：
干旱历时和干旱强度是影响干旱灾害风险的主要因素。根据干旱灾害发生的极端过程特点,用极值理论刻画干旱灾害风险两个特征变量的边缘分布,用Archimedes Copula函数捕捉旱灾风险两个特征变量之间的极值相依结构,本文构建的基于Copula-EVT的旱灾风险评估模型较好地反映了旱灾形成的极端过程和影响因子。实证分析以淮河流域蚌埠站为例,证实了ClaytonCopula-EVT模型能较好地拟合蚌埠站干旱灾害风险的历史经验分布,计算得出：蚌埠站干旱历时大于5个月,干旱强度超过7.45的极端干旱灾害风险概率为3%,重现期T_∩（t,d）为32.4年,对干旱历时和干旱强度的条件重现期研究得出干旱强度的取值对干旱灾害风险重现期的影响较大。
英文摘要：
Drought duration and drought intensity are main impacts of drought disaster risk. According to the characteristics of extreme process about drought disaster, using extreme value theory depicts two characteristics variables marginal distribution of drought disaster risk, using Archimedes Copula functions to capture the extremes dependency structure between the two variables. This paper built the drought disaster risk assessment model based on Copula-EVT, which reflected the extreme process about drought disaster and impact factor. Empirical analysis of the Huaihe River in Bengbu station verified that Clayton Copula-EVT model could fit the historical experience of drought risk distribution of Bengbu station. The results obtained when drought duration exceeded 5 months and drought intensity exceeded 7.5, the probability of extreme drought risk was about 3%, and return period was 32.4 years. Research on conditional return period of drought duration and drought intensity showed that the value of drought intensity impact return period of drought risk greater.
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