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中文摘要：
湖泊水环境是一个受多种不确定性因素限制、参数众多、机理十分复杂的系统，因此将存在对水环境质量破坏的潜在风险。文中以内蒙古乌梁素海为研究对象，应用随机方法对该湖泊水质存在的潜在风险进行了计算，结果表明：温度上升的5，6，7月份，乌梁素海水质超标风险率都超过了20％，按V类标准控制的水质超标风险率在40％左右，非突发性环境风险发生的可能性很大，有机污染十分严重，该方法能较好地反映不同时期湖？白水环境质量遭到破坏的潜在风险的变化过程，为湖泊水环境风险的决策和管理工作提供参考依据。
英文摘要：
Lake water environment is a system that is restricted by many uncertainty factors, many parameters and the complicated mechanism. So, it will exist in the potential risks of the water environmental damage. This research took Wuliangsuhai Lake in Inner Mongolia as the study areas, and calculated the lake water quality potential risks using stochastic methods. The following results were obtained： water quality risk rate was more than 20% and water quality risk rate reached 40% under V range of standard control in the 5, 6, 7months, possibility of non - accidental risk was very large. This method well reflects the lake water quality risk change process in different stages, it will provide a reference for the lake water environment decision - making and risk management.
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