中文摘要：

作者用一个地区性的气候模型，的结果在排出物情形(SRES ) A1B 情形上在特殊报告下面在第 21 世纪在东亚调查季风变化 RegCM3，与高水平的分辨率。首先，作者与 NCEP-NCAR 重新分析数据相比评估模型的性能，证明模型罐头可靠地复制在东亚上的冬季和夏天季风的基本气候学。下次，在东亚的冬季季风将稍微与空间差别在第 21 世纪变弱，这被发现。在北华东上，因为，异常的南方的风将在 midand late-21st 世纪统治带的陆地海热对比被期望变得更小，由于在土地上的一个更强壮的温暖趋势比在海洋上。然而，因为，在东亚的夏天季风的紧张在这个世纪显示出一个统计上重要的向上的趋势带的陆地海在东亚和西方的诺思太平洋之间的热对比将变得更大，它，接着将在整个东亚导致更大的海水平压力坡度并且延长到邻近的海洋。

英文摘要：

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model＇s performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.