投资与消费是地区经济增长的重要源动力。本文基于江苏省2004年至2010年的月度数据,利用单位根检验和协整检验技术对国内生产总值、固定资产投资总额及社会消费品零售总额三者之间的关系进行了实证检验。结论表明,虽然国内生产总值、固定资产投资总额及社会消费品零售总额均是非平稳的时间序列,但三者之间存在长期的均衡关系,且投资与消费的经济增长效应存在明显差异,消费的贡献弹性显著高于投资的贡献弹性。因此,政府在应对金融危机、促进经济增长的中,高度重视消费的增长效应,合理调整投资与消费的比例关系以促进江苏经济的健康平稳发展。
Investment and Consumption are believed to be sort of efficient driving force of the economic growth in an area.It can be concluded that investment has a much higher contributive elasticity than consumption does,in spite of the objectively existed long-term equilibrium relationship among GDP,gross investment in fixed assets and social retailgoods,let alone the obvious disparity of economic growth effect between investment and consumption.Accordingly,governments ought to take consumptive effects seriously not only in the duration of recovering from economic crisis but also in the process of promoting economic growth as well and meanwhile,they should try their best to keep investment and consumption in a reasonable balance.