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中文摘要：
以民用航空发动机为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论和贝叶斯更新方法,对发动机的剩余寿命进行了研究。首先通过分析发动机性能退化过程,利用贝叶斯更新方法得到了基于性能衰退信息的航空发动机剩余寿命分布;然后利用免疫粒子群优化算法建立了航空发动机剩余寿命组合预测模型。实例证明：该方法预测精度明显高于各个参与组合的预测模型,可操作性强且易于工程实现。
英文摘要：
The residual-life of an aircraft engine is studied by performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods.First,through analyzing the performance degradation process of the engine,the residual-life combined prediction model based on Bayesian updating methods is built by using particle swarm optimization with immunity algorithms（IA-PSO）.Then,we apply these models to practical situations.It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy is satisfactory.
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