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中文摘要：
社会经济和气候因素对水资源需求的影响一直是国内外重点关注的研究领域,以东莞市为研究对象,将需水量影响因子划分为气候因子、经济因子和社会因子,选取不同的影响因子建立需水预测模型,分析各类因子与需水量之间的响应关系.在此基础上选取最合适的影响因子,应用多种方法建立预测模型,采用最小方差组合预测技术对不同预测模型的结果进行集成.研究结果揭示了东莞市需水量变化的情景和成因,预测了东莞市需水量变化趋势,并为东莞市水资源需求预测管理提供理论基础.
英文摘要：
The influence of climatic and socioeconomic factors on water consumption has always been kept an important issue by global research institute.Taking Dongguan city as study object,the influence factors of water requirement are divided into climate factors,social factors and economical factors,and analyzing response relationship between various influence factors and water demand.A water demand forecasting model is established by selecting the most suitable influence factors and applying different water demand forecast methods;least squares combination forecasting technology is adopted to integrate the results of different forecasting models.Study proclaims that the circumstances and reasons of water demand changes of Dongguan city,reveals the variation tendency of water demand,and provides a theoretical foundation for Dongguan City water resources management.
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