中文摘要：

国际原油价格波动严重影响相关企业的内部战略实施和绩效水平提升。本文以2008-2015年49家能源上市公司为研究对象,运用动态面板GMM估计模型,实证研究了原油价格不确定性、战略变革与企业绩效之间的关系。研究结论表明：原油价格不确定性负向影响企业绩效,正向影响战略变革;战略变革对绩效影响具有滞后性,二者呈U型关系;且战略变革在原油价格不确定性与绩效间起完全中介作用,原油价格不确定性在战略变革与绩效间起负向调节作用。据此,提出国家要建立油价预警机制、能源企业要关注油价变动、积极实施战略变革等促进绩效提升的政策建议。

英文摘要：

The international crude oil price fluctuation seriously affects the internal strategy implementation and the performance level of the related enterprises. The paper takes the data of 49 energy listed companies from years 2008-2015 as research objects, and uses dynamic panel GMM estimation model to test the relationship among crude oil price uncertainty, strategic change and firm performance. The results show that the crude oil price uncertainty has a negative influence on firm perfor- mance and a positive influence on strategic change; strategic change has a lagged effect on firm performance with a U- shaped relationship; strategic change plays a complete mediation between crude oil price uncertainty and performance, and crude oil price uncertainty has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between strategic change and performance. Therefore some suggestions are put forward to improve energy companies＂ performance, including establishing the warning mechanism of oil price, focusing on the oil price changing and implementing strategic change actively.