中文摘要：

开展了基于全球模式MIROC嵌套区域气候模式WRF的动力降尺度模拟试验，预估了IPCCSRESA1B排放情景下中国21世纪中期（2041~2060年）和末期（2081~2100年）的气候变化。2l世纪中期：全国大部分区域年平均地表气温（下文简称气温）上升2～4。C，升温幅度较大的是在北方地区和青藏高原。年平均降水在华南和东北大部基本没有增加，甚至有所减少，在西北及长江和黄河的中下游地区有所增加。气温的标准差总体上是北方大于南方，全国的大值区位于青藏高原，表明北方地区和青藏高原的气温年际变率较大。降水年际变率较大的是华北和西北地区。21世纪末期：全国大部分区域升温在4。C以上，升温幅度较大的依然是北方地区和青藏高原。其中，青藏高原大部升温超过7。C。从季节来看，春季和冬季升温要多于夏季和秋季。降水整体上是增加的，在南方部分地区有所减少，特别是在西南地区和青藏高原的南部。气温年际变率依然是北方大于南方，全国的大值区同样位于青藏高原。华北和西北还是降水年际变率较大的地区。

英文摘要：

This paper presents a dynamical downscaling simulation of future climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model and projects the climatic changes under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario over China in the middle （2041-2060） and at the end （2081-2100） of the 21 st century. In the middle of the 21 st century, the annual mean surface air temperature over most parts of China would increase by 2-4 ℃ compared to the present, with the largest temperature increases over North China and the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation over Northwest China and the area between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River would increase, with precipitation over South China and most parts of Northeast China remaining stable or even decreasing somewhat. The standard deviation of the mean temperature in the northern part of China is larger than that in the southern part, and the largest value appears over the Tibetan Plateau. This means that the interannual temperature variations in northern China would be more obvious than those in southern China, with the largest variations over the Tibetan Plateau. Large interannual variations in precipitation are projected, mainly over North and Northwest China. At the end of the 21st century, the annual mean surface air temperature over most parts of China would increase by more than 4 ℃ compared to the present, and the largest temperature increases would still be over North China and the Tibetan Plateau. An average temperature increase of more than 7 ℃ would be seen in most parts of the Tibetan Plateau region. Furthermore, winter and spring temperatures would increase more than summer and autumn temperatures at the end of the 21st century. On the whole, precipitation would increase in most parts of China, except for a few areas in southern China. The interannual variation in the mean temperature in northern China would still be larger than that in southern China, with the largest value over the Tibetan Plateau. North and Northwest China would still e