中文摘要：

开展从源头释放到风险产生全过程的评价可有效指导铅污染的控制。通过建立包含释放物源头、环境过程、暴露途径及风险值计算的铅风险评价的模型,对人为循环中铅源头释放物的健康风险、生态风险及综合风险进行评价。采用系数估算值来表征铅释放物在环境中衰减和暴露水平。结果表明：2010年中国所产生的1887 t铅释放物（基于前期研究结果）,经过环境衰减和暴露过程后,可形成健康风险的铅释放物量为1.3 t（人均水平为0.9mg/ca）,而可形成生态风险的铅释放物量为2.7 t。铅释放的源头集中在使用阶段,而产生的风险主要集中在废物管理与回收阶段和生产阶段。从形态来看,产生健康风险最多的形态为PbO,而PbSO_4为造成生态风险最多的化合物。铅释放物中的PbSO_4、PbO和Pb形态所导致的风险占总风险的71%,在风险管理中应关注这三种形态。

英文摘要：

The risk assessment right from the source of emissions can effectively guide the pollution control. A model was established, consisting of four part： source estimation, environmental fate analysis, exposure analysis and risk assessment. The human health risk, ecological risk and total risk of lead emissions were assessed. The factors were estimated to indicate the environmental decrease and exposure probability. Of all the 1887 t emissions in China in 2010（quantified in the previous work）, it is turned out 1.3 t reached human bodies（0.9 mg/ca）, and 2.7 t reached the ecosystem. Lead mainly came from the Use stage for the source while lead causing risk mainly came from the Waste Management Recycling and Production stages. As for chemical forms, PbO contributed most to the human health risk and PbSO_4 contributed most to the ecological risk. PbSO_4, PbO and Pb altogether contributed 71% to the total risk, indicating these three chemicals should be taken priority for the risk management.