中文摘要：

针对保税港区业务背景及服务流程的特点，构建了保税港区服务流程性能管理框架．在此基础上，提出服务流程性能评价模型以及相应的性能评价指标体系．针对保税港区服务流程时效性的特点，提出了相应的实时灰色预测方法，并通过一个应用示例验证了方法的有效性．服务流程性能指标体系综合了保税港区系统中“业务”与“IT”两个层面特点，避免了现有评价方法的片面性．另外，实时性能预测方法能够有效地支持保税港区业务的闭环管理，而且适用面广，可以在其他行业进行推广使用．

英文摘要：

According to the features of business background and service processes, a performance management frame of service processes was established for bonded port zones （BPZ）. A performance evaluation model illustrated with the relative performance system of key indexes from a certain service process of BPZ was proposed on the basis of the performance management frame. In view of the timeliness features of BPZ service processes, a real-time grey prediction method was presented, which was used to carry out the real-time performance prediction of service processes, and the methodology was validated through a real-life case. The performance system of key indexes for BPZ patterns considers both the business layer and IT layer, avoiding one-sidedness of most of the evaluation methods. The real-time performance prediction method effectively supports the close-loop business management of BPZ and is also suitable for wide application in other industries.