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我国原料奶拟需求量预测及供需协调分析

ISSN号：1000-0275
期刊名称：农业现代化研究
时间：2012.1.15
页码：19-22
分类：TU-9[建筑科学]
作者机构：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190
相关基金：国家自然科学基金（70701034 60874119 70871108）; 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目（KSCX1-YW-09-04 KJCX2-YW-S8）; 住房和城乡建设部重大项目等资助
相关项目：基于水利投入占用产出技术的区域水安全多策略综合仿真模型研究及应用

关键词：民用建筑节能, 投入产出分析, 经济影响, 环境影响, Civil building energy efficiency, Input-output analysis, Economic impact, Environmental impact

中文摘要：

建立了实施民用建筑节能标准的经济和环境影响测算模型。与以往的粗略估计不同,该模型将实施民用建筑节能标准与其引起的环境经济结构变化相联系,采用4个指标评价实施民用建筑节能标准的直接经济影响、5个指标评价直接环境影响、3个指标评价完全经济影响。在两种情境假定下,应用模型进行了测算。然后对模型中的主要参数和变量进行了敏感度分析。结果表明,实施民用建筑节能标准的节能和减排效果明显,可间接推动除能源部门外其他行业的发展,而且可使GDP略增。随着民用建筑节能标准实施率的增加,对我国经济增长的拉动强度呈先增后减的趋势。最后根据对测算结果的分析,提出推广建筑节能的政策建议。

英文摘要：

It presents a model to evaluate the direct,total economic and environmental impacts of the implementation of civil building energy efficiency standards（CBEES） on Chinese economic system and environment.In contrast to the usual rough estimation,the direct economic impact degree is described by 4 indicators,as well as the direct environmental impact degree by 5 indicators,the total economic impact degree by 3 indicators.It is possible to link developments in the implementation of civil building energy efficiency standards with environmental and economic structure change.In the model,12 indicators are evaluated in two scenarios.The main findings are that the implementation of civil building energy efficiency standards will ease China＇s energy and water shortage pressure,promote the development of agriculture,scientific research,post and telecommunications and other industries except two energy industries.More important,it can also reduce a large amount of pollutant emissions and increase the GDP in a small degree.With the rate of the implementation of building energy efficiency standards increase,its pulling effect on Chinese economic growth was first increased and then decreased.It is suggested that Chinese government may have more opportunity to intensify the implementation of civil building energy efficiency standards efforts.Finally,based on the results analysis,policy recommendations to promote building energy efficiency were proposed.

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