中文摘要：

为应对夏季空调尖峰负荷,在高温期间合理安排发电计划,提出一种针对夏季空调负荷的预测方法。该方法通过寻找每个月的负荷基准,将负荷进行标幺化处理,再通过基于灵敏度的分析方法计算由温升效应带来的夏季空调负荷,该法有效消除了经济波动、拉闸限电等不确定因素的影响。利用该方法分析了2008—2014年广西电网的夏季空调负荷,并提出了基于改进的负荷曲线法,其结果进一步验证了基于标幺化负荷灵敏度法的有效性。

英文摘要：

To deal with the summer peak load caused by air conditioners and to make the generation scheduling reaso- nalization during days of torridity, this paper proposes a new method to contrapose the prediction of the air conditioning load. Firstly the load benchmark of each month is found and the load data is normalized with per-unit method. Finally, the air conditioning load is calculated based on the load sensitivity to the meteorological factor. This approach eliminates the influe- nce of uncertainties efficiently such as economic fluctuation, power rationing etc. The air conditioning load of Guangxi Power Grid in the summer of 2008-2014 is analyzed with the propo- sed method, and a load curve method based on the improve- ment is presented to verify the effectiveness of the scaling load sensitivity method.