中文摘要：

利用南陵县国家一般观测站1961～2010年的气温和降水观测资料，使用线性趋势分析、R／S分析和小波分析等方法对该县气温、降水的变化特征、变化趋势及周期进行了分析．结果表明：（1）在气温方面，南陵县整体气温升高，其中春、冬季显著升高，夏、秋季则变化不明显．另外从周期分析看，气温的变化具有超过40年和2～5年的振荡周期，未来将处于偏暖的时段．Hurst指数结果显示，春、冬季及年平均气温可能会出现下降的趋势．（2）在降水方面，仅有冬季的降水量有显著的增多特征，但未来有可能下降．通过周期分析发现，南陵县年降水量和夏季降水量均有10～15年的振荡周期，春、秋、冬季分别有20、25、30年左右的振荡周期，南陵县未来降水将处于偏多的时段．

英文摘要：

Using meteorological data in Nanling station from 1961 to 2010, variation features, variation trend and cycle of temperature and precipitation were analyzed with linear trend analysis, R/S analysis and wavelet analysis. The results are as follows. （1） In temperature, there was obvious increasing features in Nanling County, especially in spring and winter. Hurst indexes showed that temperature in spring, winter and annual mean temperature was likely to reduce. Two fluctuation periods were found, over 40 years and 2 -5 years, they show that Nanling County will be in a warm period in future. （2） In precipitation, increasing tendency was just evident in winter, hut it will decrease in future. Meanwhile, cyclic analysis showed that there were clear fluctuation periods respectively for annual mean precipitation （10 - 15 years）, summer precipitation （10 - 15 years）, spring precipitation （20 years）, autumn precipitation （25 years） , and winter precipitation （30 years）. Nanling County will be in a high rain period in future.