中文摘要：

不确定条件下的资源环境管理可减少未来风险,提高政策有效性;土地资源具有空间特性,其优化过程中的不确定性最终会传递到空间上形成弹性空间,因此,探索不确定条件下土地资源优化的弹性空间划定具有重要理论与现实意义。该文首先分析了土地资源优化面临的不确定因素,并用区间数表示不确定指标,以区间优化模型测算了不同用地数量的弹性区间,再根据适宜度标准与空间扩张连续性要求设计了一种空间优化方法,用该方法把土地利用结构弹性区间表达在空间上形成其弹性空间,并以扬州为例做了实证研究。研究表明弹性空间是土地资源优化配置不确定性在空间上的表现;弹性空间划定可提前感知并应对不确定性的影响,有利于提高土地政策有效性;该研究为现行规划中弹性空间划定提供了理论依据与技术支持。

英文摘要：

The management of uncertainties during resource utilization could perceive the underlying uncertainties in advance, thus conversely improving resources and environmental policy design to avoid risk, so nowadays much attention is paid to the research of uncertainties during resource and environmental management. Land use as a kind of important socio-economic activity also suffers from serious uncertainties, and especially the spatial characteristics make that more complicated. Up to now, many literatures have studied the uncertain quantities optimization of land resource, i.e., uncertain land use structure optimization, however that is not enough. Due to different preferences of land use on spatial units, land use planning demands spatial optimization based on the result of land use structure to guide human activities spatially, the uncertainties continue to propagate on space, and finally the flexible space of land resource spatial optimization is formed, which has important implications for formulating land use policy. This paper studies how to designate the flexible space for land resource spatial optimization under uncertain conditions. Firstly the uncertainties during land use optimization were analyzed systematically from views of population, economic, policy and nature variations, while excluding the uncertainties of spatial parameters, and at the same time the numerical expression of uncertainties was defined as uncertain indices to be dealt with. Secondly based on the comprehensive consideration of existing uncertain variables, the interval number was selected to represent the uncertain indices, which were brought into an interval programming model to obtain the flexible size of land use structure optimization, corresponding to the interval size of maximum objective value, in which only economic benefit was set as pursuit, and ecological and social demands were embodied into the constraints. Since the interval sizes of different land use areas were obtained, it was necessary to allocate them spatially to