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中文摘要：
在分析累积和检验统计量的前提下,构建了短期预警模型。定义了预警模型的可得性、误警率及漏警率,提出了短期预警完备性监测算法;针对μ0=0、σ=2的模拟变形信号,计算了不同给定误警率情况下的预警阈值。研究表明,在加入陡坡变形或缓慢增长变形时,模型均能有效预警,但缓慢预警时间延迟量（即漏警率）较长,分析同时表明预警延迟仅与ARL有关。
英文摘要：
Short-term warning model is built on the analysis of the cumulative sum statistics.Then the relationship of the minimum warning deformation（MWD）,the average run length（ARL） and the warning delay（WD） with respect to the warning threshold are presented.Based on these the definition of short-term warning model availability,false alarm rate and missed alarm rate are given.We build the integrity and the availability monitoring algorithm of the short-term warning system.According to the simulated deformation signal（μ0=0,σ=2）,different early warning thresholds are computed to give the different false alarm rate.The results show that the model is able to give an effective short-term warning when the abrupt deformation or the slowly growing deformation are considered.At the same time,the short-term warning delay is related to the ARL.The model is successfully applied to the short-term warning of the field collected data,which provides an overall quality control for the establishment of short-term warning theory.
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