在全国农地流转、规模经营的呼声越来越高的背景下,农地流转政策的推行是否起到应有的效果有待检验和反思。论文基于来自我国中部5省925个转入户的调查数据,从3组模型全面考察了农地转入规模与农户农业收入之间的关系。实证研究表明:1)农地转入规模与农业收入呈正向关系,但农地转入规模的经济收益率仅为2.9%。2)农地转入规模对农业收入的作用在不同区域、流转方式、农户类型之间有明显差异:安徽、湖北和湖南较之河南、江西的规模经济收益率更高,农户自发流转下的规模经济收益率高于集体主导方式,农地转入规模对纯农户农业收入的影响要大于对兼业农户。3)农户平均收入水平随着转入规模增加呈现出先增加后降低的"倒U型"趋势,农地转入规模等级越大,其经济收益率却越低。因此,目前我们亟待解决的是加强农地流转对农户收入影响的系统机制研究,寻找制约流转规模效益的因子,降低农户大规模流转时的风险和损失,而不是盲目扩大流转面积。
There are increasing louder voices for farmland transfer and scale management of agriculture. It is needed to evaluate the effects of the farmland transfer policy. Based on peasant household survey in the five provinces in Mid-China(Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi), this paper uses the data collected from 925 rented-in households and develops three sets of models to investigate the relation between farmland transfer-in scale and farmers' farmincome. The empirical research shows that: 1) the farmland transfer scale has significant positive correlation to agricultural income, but its economic return rate is only 2.9%. 2) The influence of the farmland transfer scale shows difference in different regions with different transfer modes and different household types. The economic return rate in Anhui, Huibei and Hunan is higher than that in Henan and Jiangxi. The economic return rate of households-led mode is higher than that of government-led model. The farmland transfer scale has more impact on the agricultural income of pure farm households than on that of part-time farm households. 3) With the increase of farmland transfer scale, the farms' income rises at first and then descends, showing an inverted U-shaped trajectory. The larger the farmland transfer scale,the lower income return rate is. Therefore, it is much better to improve the efficiency of farmland use, study the mechanism of the impact of farmland transfer scale on income and analyze the risks and reasons of income loss, rather than to expand the farmland scale blindly.